Yes yes! The eve of the regular season commencing is upon me and I am here with predictions in abundance. It was an off-season to remember for an array of reasons: the Perth Wildcats losing Bryce Cotton, the Adelaide 36ers losing Kendric Davis, the Adelaide 36ers replacing Kendric Davis with Bryce Cotton, the Sydney Kings getting Kendric “I Hate Adelaide” Davis, the Perth Wildcats finding Mason “I Am Not Bryce Cotton” Jones, the Tasmania JackJumpers getting three high-level import guards, the Brisbane Bullets bringing in proven quality players, the Illawarra Hawks retaining most of their championship core, Melbourne United adding youth to their veteran core, the Cairns Taipans having a newfound budget, the New Zealand Breakers going full Kiwi, and the South East Melbourne Phoenix going full European. It was not only a time of excitement for players but also coaches: the Bullets hired their coaching hire consultant Stu Lash as head coach, the Taipans returned Adam Forde after his overseas job hunt, the Hawks kept Justin Tatum after his Indonesian fiesta, and the Breakers decided their Kiwi ethos does not extend to their head coach.

There were heartfelt moments too: Harry Froling makes a return to the league after his 2023 near-death assault by signing as the injury replacement for his brother on the Hawks, Lamar Patterson returns to the league after three years as a nominated replacement player for the Bullets, and there are three sets of brothers on the same team as each other. There were players that were not to be: the Phoenix released two of their imports before either of them appeared in a regular season game, the Taipans lost one of their imports due to personal reasons, and the Kings’ Keli Leaupepe and JackJumpers’ Sean Macdonald were both ruled out for the entire season.

I have spent many months now awaiting this very moment as it is one that I hold with great excitement: my predictions for this season ahead. It is with increased excitement purely because of the incredible amount of talent that has been introduced to the league this season. There are the new imports with extensive NBA experience like JaVale McGee, Mason Jones, Admiral Schofield and Javon Freeman-Liberty. There are imports staying in the league like Cotton, Davis, Montrezl Harrell, Milton Doyle, Parker Jackson-Cartwright, Tyler Harvey, Jaylen Adams, Casey Prather, Kristian Doolittle and Dylan Windler. There are the imports coming back to the league like Zylan Cheatham and Tim Soares. There are the locals who have been brought home like Jack McVeigh, Jo Lual-Acuil Jr., Finn Delany, Reyne Smith, Alex Ducas and Ben Henshall. In past seasons, there is always the visible cellar dweller but the parity of this season is remarkable. Every team could genuinely compete. There is only the rough glimpses of preseason action to judge these teams and players on for this season. Combine them with past histories, hopeful ambitions and mere premonition and you will have my predictions.

My championship team is the Adelaide 36ers. Have no fear; this is no hometown bias. The 36ers put on the strongest recruitment effort of their entire existence and brought in an array of talent. Their three imports are the strongest trio in the league: 5x MVP Cotton and NBA Best Sixth Man Harrell are supported by do-it-all Cheatham. They also lured Flynn Cameron who is bursting to have a breakthrough season and his all-around ability will see him the essential role of piecing the other pieces together. The additions are supported by the retention of locals Dejan Vasiljevic and Isaac Humphries; one will have to further assimilate into a supporting role that he once excelled in and the other will have to persevere with mental fortitude as his role is likely to reduce. The two complaints often directed at the 36ers line-up is their lack of playmaking and defence; there are enough players on the team who can handle the ball and there are enough players who are adequate defenders for any blights to be overcome. Perhaps their greatest issue will be the aforementioned roles of players as there are so many of a high standard who will be asked to conform within a structure as opposed to the individual excellence they might have expected elsewhere. I have Melbourne United as runners-up for a third consecutive season; they have the best import contingent they have had perhaps in their entire existence as United and are now a deep team. Jesse Edwards is the prototype that team has needed for many seasons. My remaining four finals contenders are the Brisbane Bullets, Perth Wildcats, Sydney Kings and Tasmania JackJumpers. There is not a lot of faith in the Bullets which is interesting. They missed the Finals by only one win last season despite having to battle through injuries in abundance. They have since retained the majority of their local roster (minus Josh Bannan — major loss!), kept Prather and improved their other two import slots with Freeman-Liberty (who has All-NBL potential) and Adams. Perhaps doubt comes over because of their brand new head coach Lash being fresh out of the boardroom but the personnel on that team should hold them through regardless. The Wildcats are another team that have made improvements across their roster even though they lost the greatest of all time (!!!). Lual-Acuil Jr. was a major addition as was Jones (both All-NBL predictions). The Kings will make the finals regardless of how well all of their pieces fit together (perhaps haphazardly) purely because they will have three players coming off their bench when they secure a third import. The JackJumpers too will make the finals as they signed two superb imports in Bryce Hamilton (All-NBL!) and David Johnson. Having no injury insurance for Will Magnay is stunning and they are only one seasonal occurrence away from having their season torpedoed.

This leaves the Cairns Taipans, Illawarra Hawks, New Zealand Breakers and South East Melbourne Phoenix. The Taipans have their best roster in many seasons … but … losing Ashton Hagans and not attempting a like-for-like replacement was a confusing move. That team will feel the lack of electricity at point guard and I have no idea who will be the main ball handler on that team now. Getting McVeigh on a multi-year deal is massive and it could be that they better retool for next season. I have been a Hawks believer for the last two seasons as I picked them as Finals contenders in 2023–24 and champions in 2024–25. That 2023–24 roster was excellent but old coach could not get it working right until Tatum came in and rejuvenated the whole squad. That presence made me feel like they would be champions in 2025 and it came true. My reasons for not believing this year are the losses of Sam Froling, Darius Days, Trey Kell and Lachlan Olbrich. They did not add enough pieces to cover those roles even though McGee will be a great signing. The Breakers are my seventh team; it was between them and the Bullets for sixth. This again was a team that did well last season until their season was derailed by an unnecessary player swap so an otherwise retained roster will do well. I like their emphasis on the New Zealand representation and they have added two solid imports in Rob Baker and Izaiah Brockington to aid Jackson-Cartwright. Lastly, the Phoenix have made roster additions that have been widely underwhelming throughout preseason. Their one solid addition, John Brown, is my nominee for best defensive player. It will be seen what their new third import (their fifth import signing in total this season!) will bring but they would have much responsibility to cover for a lot of needs.

For individual awards, I have reigning MVP Cotton, reigning MVP runner-up Davis, high-scoring Hamilton, high-scoring Freeman-Liberty and standout big man Lual-Acuil Jr. as first team All-NBL. On the second team, I have Harrell, Harvey, Jackson-Cartwright, Jones and McVeigh. I believe that bringing the 36ers to title contention will be enough qualification for Cotton earning another MVP in addition to any performance that he brings to the court; it should be reduced from last season as a result of having the best supporting cast of his career around him. Smith of the Taipans is my selection for the Next Generation Award; he will have the opportunity to let it fly on a team without a wide array of offensive options and his three-point scoring ability should let him get the award. I tossed it up between him and Malique Lewis of the Phoenix. Best Defensive Player goes to Brown who is widely acclaimed for his defensive presence and will hold it down for the Phoenix. Best Sixth Man again goes to Kouat Noi for a second consecutive year; he is extremely talented for his role and executes it flawlessly. Most Improved goes to Cameron who will be asked to provide anything that the 36ers need; fortunately he has the ability to do whatever it is from playmaking to defending to scoring to rebounding. Coach of the Year goes to Mike Wells for bringing it all together for Adelaide and returning them to championship glory!

This season is mad exciting. The parity is incredible. The Kings and Phoenix still each have an import to bring in so it could be that their rosters will be even more improved. I cannot ever look past the mere presence of Cotton on the 36ers in deciding who will be the top this season. That is the ultimate signing in league history; it should result in a winning season. Let’s bring it home! (No hometown bias.) Bring on the season.

(Edit: I have replaced Harrell with Cheatham on the Second Team after the former’s release. Due to Freeman-Liberty’s departure, I have elevated McVeigh to the First Team and moved Tyrell Harrison to the Second Team.)

Finals predictions
Adelaide 36ers (champions)
Brisbane Bullets
Melbourne United (runners-up)
Perth Wildcats
Sydney Kings
Tasmania JackJumpers

Award predictions
All-NBL First Team
Bryce Cotton (Adelaide 36ers)
Kendric Davis (Sydney Kings)
Bryce Hamilton (Tasmania JackJumpers)
Jo Lual-Acuil Jr. (Perth Wildcats)
Jack McVeigh (Cairns Taipans)

All-NBL Second Team
Zylan Cheatham (Adelaide 36ers)
Tyrell Harrison (Brisbane Bullets)
Tyler Harvey (Illawarra Hawks)
Parker Jackson-Cartwright (New Zealand Breakers)
Mason Jones (Perth Wildcats)

Honourable mention: Jesse Edwards (Melbourne United), David Johnson (Tasmania JackJumpers), JaVale McGee (Illawarra Hawks), Casey Prather (Brisbane Bullets), Admiral Schofield (Cairns Taipans)

Most Valuable Player: Bryce Cotton (Adelaide 36ers)
Next Generation Award: Reyne Smith (Cairns Taipans)
Best Defensive Player: John Brown (South East Melbourne Phoenix)
Best Sixth Man: Kouat Noi (Sydney Kings)
Most Improved Player: Flynn Cameron (Adelaide 36ers)
Coach of the Year: Mike Wells (Adelaide 36ers)