You know what it is. The arrival of the new NBL season is on the horizon and necessitates the arrival of my (un)famed predictions article. I said the same thing as the NBL mouthpieces last season but my belief remains the same: this was an offseason where the overall quality of the league improved and all teams have relatively equal opportunities of being successful. The incoming players are of an increased experience but also – and this is an element that has not been widely mentioned – so much of the talent from last season has been retained. For example, 9 out of the 10 All-NBL players from last season are back in the league (it was 7/10 in 2025–26, 5/10 in 2024–25 and 6/10 in 2023–24). Maintaining that top level of talent is essential for parity, identity and overall success which is then only bolstered by adding to it.

Perhaps what is most impressive this season is the quality of point guards. Bryce Cotton, Kendric Davis, Tyler Harvey and Parker Jackson-Cartwright were returned alongside the additions of Cole Anthony, Brandon Knight, Skylar Mays, Arnas Velička and Taran Armstrong. Almost every game is going to have some crazy match-up at the guard spot. The rivalry between Cotton and Davis will have new intensity with both players wanting what the other one achieved last season: Cotton’s desire for another championship and Davis’ desire for the MVP award. The NBL has not ever seen someone of Anthony’s quality – a rotational NBA player in the prime of his career – ever. Other exciting additions include Nate Hinton, Kelan Martin and Josh Oduro. There were the retentions of vital imports like Zylan Cheatham, Torrey Craig, Kristian Doolittle, Milton Doyle, Bryce Hamilton and Dylan Windler. The local talent pool has also been increased with additions including Joe Ingles, Keanu Pinder, Luke Travers, Anthony Dell’Orso and Max Mackinnon. What is fascinating as well is that there were not any star players moving teams in the league this season but there are multiple players who could be poised for breakout seasons: Jaylin Galloway, Kouat Noi, Sam Waardenburg and Dash Daniels included.

The players are an obvious consideration but the level of coaches has also seen an increase. The New Zealand Breakers parted with their first-time head coach to bring in Gordon Herbert who has extensive experience in Europe and won the FIBA World Cup as head coach of Germany three years ago. The Adelaide 36ers also parted with their first-time head coach to return Trevor Gleeson to Australia who spent the last five years in the NBA and Japan after winning five NBL championships. The 9-year tenure of Dean Vickerman at Melbourne United ended and there will be a new legacy to be created for Jacob Chance who is widely regarded as one of the brightest minds in Australian basketball. There was even a sound decision made by the minds at the Brisbane Bullets who hired a boardroom executive to try his hand at coaching last season but decided on experience this time around with the addition of Will Weaver. Combine the team rosters with past histories, hopeful ambitions and mere premonition and you will have my predictions.

Again, it is no hometown bias but the Adelaide 36ers have the best likelihood of becoming champions. They were infamously one layup or one rebound away from winning the championship last season; they could not have been any closer. Bringing in Gleeson with his extensive league success for a reunification with Cotton was the ultimate coaching adjustment. They also nullified the effect of Cotton’s greatest defender in Bul Kuol by recruiting him away from the Kings. They also retained the entirety of their primary roster other than Dejan Vasiljevic – who wanted out anyway – which means that they enter the season knowing each other, knowing what they can achieve and knowing how to play together which is an incredible asset. I cannot see a championship repeat for the Kings purely from their mass exodus of rotational talent. Having Craig for a full season alongside a fired-up Davis will be huge but they lost Tim Soares, Galloway and Noi as well as Kuol. The same thing happened with the champion Illawarra Hawks in 2025 who kept most of their starters but lost that depth and did not come close to repeating. The Kings will still be championship contenders but they will not be as efficient as last season. I am big on United who have a starting line-up brimming with talent but they are not a deep team unless role players are to suddenly emerge into larger outputs. I love what the Hawks have done with their roster and they will again be competitive this season with a localised Harvey, healthy Sam Froling, and strong import additions of Doyle and Martin. The Wildcats who had everything last season except for a floor-raising point guard seem to have quelled that with the addition of Knight and I expect them to finally be back in championship consideration. My final postseason member has to be the Bullets who I believe in every season and am met with disappointment. However, they are now being coached by someone who at least has a semblance of experience and have two super strong imports in Velička and Hinton.

That means my bottom four teams are the Cairns Taipans, New Zealand Breakers, South East Melbourne Phoenix and Tasmania JackJumpers. The Taipans have their best team in years by adding Pinder and Galloway. However, they are again missing that experienced playmaking point guard who can elevate the existing talent. Their defensive abilities were their flaw last season as they were the season before then (and the season before?, etc.) and that has not been addressed despite the addition of Malique Lewis. The Breakers fascinatingly had most of their roster assembled before the appointment of their head coach Herbert (who surely could have utilised his extensive international connections) so it feels like a team a little below what could be expected. The Phoenix are the team that I get wrong every season but not finding a replacement for the major defensive presence in John Brown was fascinating considering how important he was to their success last season. I am a believer in Mays and it could be that their fortunes change with import replacements as they did last season to their betterment. The JackJumpers bizarrely went for the almost-never-before-seen three import guards combined with their star local in Armstrong which means one of them will be relegated to the bench. It is a guard-heavy team with negligible insurance for the oft-injured Will Magnay which has the potential to again torpedo their season.

For individual awards, Cotton is again my MVP. You are talking about someone who finds motivation in himself every season to be greater despite being at the top. He now has redemption to find against Davis and his seventh MVP award will tie him with Andrew Gaze. I expect Gleeson’s approach will mean less of a reliance on Cotton which will allow him to exceed in what he is given as opposed to the excess of last season. I believe Galloway being a starter for the Taipans will enable a breakthrough that will earn him the Next Generation Award. Brown was such an easy prediction for Best Defensive Player last season that his departure has left a vacuum; I might have to go for Craig although it could be Kuol or Wani Swaka Lo Buluk. Best Sixth Man will be William Hickey of the Hawks who goes back to a reserve role despite his talents because of how well his team recruited this season. Most Improved will likely also go to Galloway but Daniels will be in obvious consideration as well. For coach of the year, I believe it could be Gleeson for taking the 36ers to success but I think that the elevation Weaver brings to the Bullets will be hard to ignore. On my All-NBL first team, I have reigning MVP Cotton, reigning Finals MVP Davis, Anthony, Doolittle and Cheatham. For the second team, Jo Lual-Acuil, Velička, Martin, McVeigh and Craig.

Just like last season, this season is mad exciting. I again believe that the parity is incredible. The additions of this season are unlike any of recent history. Those guard battles alone will be worth watching. Everything else is a bonus! Shoutout the league and the players. Most importantly, big up the 36ers. Bring it hooooome!!! (No hometown bias.) Bring it on.

Finals predictions
Adelaide 36ers (champions)
Brisbane Bullets
Illawarra Hawks
Melbourne United (runners-up)
Perth Wildcats
Sydney Kings

Award predictions
All-NBL First Team
Cole Anthony (Melbourne United)
Zylan Cheatham (Adelaide 36ers)
Bryce Cotton (Adelaide 36ers)
Kendric Davis (Sydney Kings)
Kristian Doolittle (Perth Wildcats)

All-NBL Second Team
Torrey Craig (Sydney Kings)
Jo Lual-Acuil (Perth Wildcats)
Kelan Martin (Illawarra Hawks)
Jack McVeigh (Cairns Taipans)
Arnas Velička (Brisbane Bullets)

Honourable mention: Taran Armstrong (Tasmania JackJumpers), Flynn Cameron (Adelaide 36ers), Bryce Hamilton (Tasmania JackJumpers), Tyler Harvey (Illawarra Hawks), Nate Hinton (Brisbane Bullets), Parker Jackson-Cartwright (New Zealand Breakers), Skylar Mays (South East Melbourne Phoenix), Josh Oduro (Melbourne United)

Most Valuable Player: Bryce Cotton (Adelaide 36ers)
Next Generation Award: Jaylin Galloway (Cairns Taipans)
Best Defensive Player: Torrey Craig (Sydney Kings)
Best Sixth Man: William Hickey (Illawarra Hawks)
Most Improved Player: Jaylin Galloway (Cairns Taipans)
Coach of the Year: Will Weaver (Brisbane Bullets)